Microbeta: Managing Uncertainty in Climbing

"It's ground up buddy"

Time Tunnel, entrance to Purple Stones in Topanga, California

Introduction

Hey all! I meant to write an article on conditions and friction, but I didn’t quite get to it between climbing, schoolwork, and social obligations. I figure this might happen in the future, so I’m starting a “Microbeta” series where I’ll write shorter essays on simpler climbing topics. This is one that’s been especially helpful to me recently, and it ties into the last article well. It also tees up a future article on a nervous system focused approach to climbing.

What is uncertainty?

Last week I went over the value-action gap, which essentially states that just because you should do something, i.e. send a climb, doesn’t mean that you will. I went over a few reasons why this may occur, but I wanted to expand on the topic of uncertainty more. There’s a decent amount of discourse on tactics in climbing, but I find that uncertainty is almost never mentioned. Uncertainty manifests in many ways in climbing, including sketchy topouts, unfamiliar holds, and most importantly, unpracticed move/links.

According to Paul Glimcher, PhD, chair and professor in the Department of Neuroscience, professor in the Department of Psychiatry and director of the Institute for Translational Neuroscience at NYU Langone Health in New York, there are two main types of uncertainty: ‘known unknowns’ and ‘unknown unknowns.’¹ A known unknown is where the chances of a given outcome are known. For example, a sketchy topout where there is a chance of injury but you know your beta would be a known unknown. An unknown unknown is where the odds of a given outcome are unknown. In this case, a topout with no chalk on the holds and move beta would be an unknown unknown. Glimcher says people “tend to treat ambiguous situations as roughly two times as bad as risky situations.” This is supported by research which shows that ambiguity activates regions of the brain associated with stress and threat much more than known risk.² Furthermore, threat states are shown to reduce athletic performance.³

To tie it back to climbing, when one hasn’t practiced links, they increase uncertainty, which increases threat appraisal. Threat states are shown to cause more muscular tension and reduce efficiency, which usually means overgripping, messing up beta, and climbing with poor technique.

How do climbers manage uncertainty?

In outdoor/board climbing, I see a big difference in new-generation athletes and older-generation ones when it comes to managing uncertainty. Younger climbers are more likely to go for bottom rips without working links, while older climbers are generally much more methodical.⁴ There’s also a tendency for athletes in my generation to project less and attempt established sub-limit climbs more. I suspect that this is due to most younger climbers being current or former competitive athletes, in which flashes/onsights are rewarded and working moves/projecting is actively inhibited by competition rules. I believe that we have a lot to learn from older athletes in this regard, as I know many athletes who are much, much stronger than their hardest bouldering grade would suggest. I was especially surprised when an experienced high-level outdoor climber remarked that he was never surprised when he sent a climb. He also told me that he almost always prefers to do links that seemed uncertain before attempting to send from the bottom. This is a major contrast to my experience, where I always felt like sending was a fluke.

It’s important to note that eliminating uncertainty does not mean making a climb certain or easy, but instead reducing uncertain outcomes to known risks. I’ve observed many climbers whose tolerance for uncertainty and risk is too low. They tend to obsess over links and beta, only attempting from the ground once everything feels easy. A healthy middle ground must be struck, where a send feels possible without relying on flukes and the climb is understood, but not so certain where the climb is below one’s limit. This can be achieved by placing more emphasis on practicing links until no part of the climb feels ambiguous.

Conclusion:

I’ve been applying this strategy recently, and it’s allowed me to consistently send climbs that felt very improbable, including my first single-session V13, so try it out and let me know what you think! Once again, sorry for the shorter article this week, but I hope it was informative. Thanks for reading!

P.S. A very helpful tip is to make sure you include foot moves when practicing links. I used to only focus on hand moves, which has cost me many attempts in which I did not know my foot beta, and/or the foot moves were actually the crux!

1. https://www.physiology.org/publications/news/the-physiologist-magazine/2025/november/the-brain-in-a-chaotic-world

2. https://doi.org/10.1038/nrn1856

3. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40027878/

4. That being said, I’ve witnessed a (relatively) older climber flash multiple V13s. My working theory is that his certainty is high on climbs that suit his particular style, as I’ve also seen him not even attempt to flash on climbs of the same grade that are more out of his style.